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April 27, 2011

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Jack Klompus

"Maybe you would think there'd be a deafening silence drifting across the red neck media-sphere after the dark-skinned fellow posted up his birth certificate- like a firey lightning bolt from hell sent straight up the asses of Trump, Palin, Beck, Barkman, teabagger boy et al"

Who would think that? First of all, Trump wasn't pushing this issue because he was seriously worried about the president's citizenship. It was a PR stunt. Secondly, anyone who was still invested in the "conspiracy" (after all the conclusive evidence presented over the years) -- is naturally not just going to let it go. They're going to say, "Why now? What took him so long?" And then they're going to question the authenticity of the document. And spin-off conspiracy theories will be manufactured (see: "truthers, 9/11")

That said, the president's explanation for releasing this document is ludicrous. It was no more a distraction for the government (or the citizens) now than it was during the '08 campaign. It wasn't dominating the news cycle as he implied. 2.5 years into his presidency and NOW the silliness must end? Or so he says -- immediately before taking off to make an appearance on Oprah, followed by three 2012 campaign fundraising events.

Mr. Kruger

@Klompus
Who would think that?

Naah you wouldn't think that, and neither would I. really.

That said, the president's explanation for releasing this document is ludicrous.It was no more a distraction for the government (or the citizens) now than it was during the '08 campaign.....

yes, you summarized everything i said quite nicely. my comment on it being a distraction meant simply that someone in the WH has deal with how to handle it- as opposed to doing something else- like justifying bombing arab dictators.

Assman

It wasn't dominating the news cycle as he implied. 2.5 years into his presidency and NOW the silliness must end? Or so he says -- immediately before taking off to make an appearance on Oprah, followed by three 2012 campaign fundraising events.

Well, yeah. But look at it the other way. The guy wants to be re-elected. It makes sense to drop this salvo on the retarded half of his detractors when it's most elctorally judicious.

Doing it earlier would have been dumb because it's beneath a sitting president to have to do this. Doing it later would have cost him votes. Doing it now is great because it's simultaneously easy and a great way to raise funds.

That said, I can't wait till next month when he shaves his head to prove that he doesn't have horns.

Jack Klompus

"Doing it earlier would have been dumb because it's beneath a sitting president to have to do this."

I disagree. I think waiting until 18 months before his re-election makes him look either weak or petty. He should have stood his ground. The evidence already provided was suitable for anyone not on the fringe. Until Trump came along, it was reduced to online pop-up polls and freeper chain emails.

"Doing it later would have cost him votes."

Really? How many people who would possibly be on the fence about voting for him would be concerned with the birth certificate "issue?"

"That said, I can't wait till next month when he shaves his head to prove that he doesn't have horns."

Well he did promise to be the "most transparent and open administration in history." Probably wasn't what he had in mind though.

Assman

I think waiting until 18 months before his re-election makes him look either weak or petty... How many people who would possibly be on the fence about voting for him would be concerned with the birth certificate "issue?"

Sure, I'll expound. The fringe loonies weren't the target of this exercise, I don't believe. It would be the left leaning Democrats who needed to be energized for fundraising.

Can't you envision a campaign where people everywhere bring their birth certificates with them to the polls in a big F.U. maneuver to their perceived opposition? It's a nice salvo just before election season.

James Carville theorized that it was done to position Trump as the leading Republican candidate, but that seems too complicated of a strategy. It's easier to imagine this as an adrenaline shot for the base that otherwise might have become jaded.

mathesond

http://tinyurl.com/66mqr2h

Jack Klompus

"It would be the left leaning Democrats who needed to be energized for fundraising."

Not buying that either. I don't think it has much that much of an impact on his supporters. Energy from his base this time around will primarily be relative to the energy from the opposition. So not sure how this plays into energy. My only thought to that would be that it's the first of a series of suprises he'll be rolling out leading up to the election.

"Can't you envision a campaign where people everywhere bring their birth certificates with them to the polls in a big F.U. maneuver to their perceived opposition?"

Not really, considering it's the party that staunchly opposes proposals (by the right) to require stricter identification at polling stations. Also it alienates (no pun intended) "undocumented" voters.

"James Carville theorized that it was done to position Trump as the leading Republican candidate, but that seems too complicated of a strategy."

It's not a bad theory, actually. I know for sure that if it came down to Trump vs. Obama, I wouldn't be the only conservative who would vote Obama in that scenario. That said, I don't think Carville's theory ultimately carries enough water considering Trump will never last as a serious candidate. The media may love him, but real conservatives loathe him. He's a scumbag. He'd be cooked the minute the subject of eminent domain came up. And that's just for starters.

Jeff

"James Carville theorized that it was done to position Trump as the leading Republican candidate, but that seems too complicated of a strategy."

It sounds like a pretty solid move (if that's true). And Jack, I wouldn't dismiss it so fast just because Trump doesn't seem like he could last as a serious candidate. I don't have a lot of faith in the GOP's ability to successfully put forth their most impressive people in elections. It's definitely worth a try if you're Obama.

Jeff

By the way, Jack, who do you hope to have as the Republican nominee? Forget whether or not you think they'll run or whether or not you think they are electable. I am just curious who you feel has the best shot at beating Obama. Personally, I'm thinking Romney.

Jack Klompus

"It's definitely worth a try if you're Obama."

Maybe I'm overestimating Obama's political machine, but I don't think so. I just don't see them wasting a trump card on Trump.

"I am just curious who you feel has the best shot at beating Obama."

Paul Ryan. Though I think he's targeting 2016.

Romney is the likely 2012 candidate given the economy. But he'd need someone like Herman Cain, Bobby Jindal, or Allen West on his ticket to stand a chance.

Mr. Kruger

My only thought to that would be that it's the first of a series of suprises he'll be rolling out leading up to the election.

No surprise there- he had every right to play it like he did. It was a good showing.

Trump 2012 + three major bankruptcies under his belt= bad joke.

Paul Ryan. Though I think he's targeting 2016.

This Paul Ryan?

He may have trouble keeping his seat first.


Jack Klompus

"No surprise there- he had every right to play it like he did. It was a good showing"

What's curious is the birth certificate question originated from Hilary's '08 campaign. With my tinfoil hat on, I wonder if he's clearing up the issue so it doesn't come full circle when she's his running mate in '12? I don't see Biden sticking around, that's for sure.

"This Paul Ryan?

He may have trouble keeping his seat first."

That's a perfect example of people being conditioned to only look at tax revenue from a class warfare mentality. Ryan was talking about lowering the U.S. corporate tax rate so more businesses would grow here. More business here = more tax revenue. Currently, you have big businesses growing, and small businesses closing up shop. Sure, big corporations provide jobs, but so don't small businesses. The big difference though, large corporations are able to offshore their operations and use giant team of accountants to ensure they pay taxes in the the most cost-effective country (i.e., not here). Thus, less U.S. small businesses + big ccorps avoiding U.S. corp taxes = less tax revenue. Simple equation. General Electic is most recent glaring example of that problem.

Assman

Energy from his base this time around will primarily be relative to the energy from the opposition. So not sure how this plays into energy.

And if the base has the perception that the opposition are a bunch of birthers, this doesn't energize them?

Put it this way - if you voted Obama because you hate the politcal right, you're probably disappointed in how much compromising he's done and may get apathetic. Him taking this opportunity to piss in the cornflakes of the fringe is the sort of thing you've wanted to see for years.

Paul Ryan. Though I think he's targeting 2016.

Interesting. I'd have imagined you as an Eric Cantor guy. With Chris Christie as a running mate.

Mr. Kruger


Ryan was talking about lowering the U.S. corporate tax rate so more businesses would grow here.

Who's going to make up the shortfall in revenue for those corporate tax cuts? Yep, that's right- small businesses and the middle class. Reward the rich for avoiding their tax obligations so you can get a fat re-election check. That's his plan.

Jack Klompus

"And if the base has the perception that the opposition are a bunch of birthers, this doesn't energize them?"

Sure, but it's seems pretty marginal to me. Personally, I think there was more political value in holding onto it. But obviously his team knows how to spend political capital so I'm sure it was well calculated beyond my understanding.

"Interesting. I'd have imagined you as an Eric Cantor guy. With Chris Christie as a running mate."

No way. And no way. I'm not saying I want Ryan to run either. I just think he'd have the best odds of winning, even though I don't think the GOP has anyone that will ultimately beat Obama (Ryan included). Personally I think Ryan is more useful where he is now -- pushing unpopular budgetary issues (i.e., the sustainability of Medicare). I'm not interested in having a conservative president just because he/she's not a liberal. If the best person available for the job happens to be a Democrat -- so be it. That said, I don't care for "super majorities" either. Simple majorities are necessary, yes. But total party control almost always results in some sort of meltdown that benefits nobody.

Jack Klompus

"Reward the rich for avoiding their tax obligations so you can get a fat re-election check. That's his plan."

Who are you referring to here? Obama, or Ryan?

Mr. Kruger

@Klompus

I guess I'm referring to both. Neither plan is serious about cutting the deficit or creating jobs. Giving more tax breaks to the rich has never created jobs. Giving more tax incentives to the corporations is nothing but a free welfare program.

More access to loans for upstarts is a lot better way imo. And none of it is going to work if you have unskilled and uneducated labor force.

Jack Klompus

""Neither plan is serious about cutting the deficit or creating jobs."

Ryan's targeting Medicare and Social Security. Maybe his plans won't work, but anyone who is serious about the deficit is going after those two items.

"Giving more tax breaks to the rich has never created jobs."

What does that mean, "giving tax breaks to the rich?" How do you define wealth? By income, or by net worth?

"Giving more tax incentives to the corporations is nothing but a free welfare program."

Depends on the tax incentive. Ultimately we as consumers pay the corporate tax. So we should want it to be as low as possible. Because those taxes get passed on in the form of higher prices, lower employee salaries, less employee benefits, and even less jobs. The way it works now, large corps keep their less/un-profitable operations in the American tax system and move their most profitable assets/operations to lower-rate countries. Not to mention, these other low-rate havens don't have state taxes on top of federal taxes. That's how these corps, like GE, are able to lessen (or even completely elimminate) US corporate tax liability. Incentivizing large corps to keep their profitable operations in the U.S. makes more sense than trying to close loopholes -- both from a tax revenue and from a competition standpoint.

Mr. Kruger

It's all about loopholes. The corporate tax rate in the U.S. is high but what they actually pay is nothing in relation to their profits. And their employees don't benefit one iota from those profits- never have and never will. Prices will go up regardless of a corporation's profits- they never go down. Taxing the middle class and targeting essential programs like medicare and medicaid to re-finance the deficit is a prime example of smoke and mirrors bullshit their lobbyists spew out to maintain the status quo.

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